21st European Foodservice Summit – Digital Edition

Future Drivers of our Industry

October 29th 2020
3:00 p.m. (CET)

This event will take place in English.

Valid data and reliable forecasts have never been more important than in these turbulent times. At the first Digital Summit Talk, market researcher and renowned expert Jochen Pinsker looks at the current figures, scenarios and trends on the food service market in Europe. The Senior Vice President of the German division of the globally active NPD Group will kick off the Digital Summit Talk together with foodservice editor-in-chief Boris Tomic / foodservice editor Katrin Wissmann.

Noch nie waren valide Daten und verlässliche Prognosen wichtiger als in diesen turbulenten Zeiten. Marktforscher und ausgewiesener Experte Jochen Pinsker blickt beim ersten Digital Summit Talk auf die aktuellen Zahlen, Szenarien und Trends auf dem Foodservice-Markt in Europa. Der Senior Vice President der deutschen Sparte der weltweit agierenden NPD Group macht gemeinsam mit foodservice-Chefredakteur Boris Tomic / foodservice-Redakteurin Katrin Wissmann den Auftakt der Digital Summit Talks.

Scenario Planning Methodology:
The NPD Group has been developing a methodology that allows to predict consumer spend and visits into the different segmtens of foodservice industry based on a segmentation into need states or visit situations. The idea is that people use the industry depending on whether they find themselves in various situations in which they require or want restaurants, cafés, cafeterias, delivery services or take-aways to cater for their need. For example, being in the office or in the factory on a day may trigger the purchase of a hot beverage for the commute, lunch in the workplace cafeteria and a snack in the afternoon. Now when consumers don’t work from their office because they stopped working or work from home, they do not find themselves in the situation that requires a foodservice purchase.
NPD has identified so called ‘Drivers’ that determine how often consumers are expected to find themselves in different situations, they range from the economic situation, their openess to go out, changes in restaurant offerings to core changes in their private and work life. The development of these Drivers were combined in different scenarios.
Understanding the size of the Visit Situation before the COVID-19 pandemic though the CREST consumer panel and building scenarios for the Drivers allows to estimate market sizes in future periods.

European Trends vs local countries:
The steps that we went during the pandemic showed a similar picture throughout all countries: the ‘Old Normal’ before the outbreak, the introduction of the restrictions in the countries, the lock-down, the beginning of the recovery when restrictions started to be lifted and – hopefully soon when there are no more restrictions – the ‘new normal’. Whilst all countries went through these steps in a similar order, the baseline during the lockdown but also how quickly the recovery led to increasing visits and spend shows large differences between the countries. And mid-September, some countries are back to 80% of the size pre-COVID-19, some still only operate at 50%.

Numbers for 2020 and 2021:
Since The NPD Group is tracking consumers eating out behaviour through its CREST panel every single day, it can constantly monitor whether earlier predictions mirror the actual behaviour. In addition, the outlook of how the Drivers are performing also changes during this unprecedented time. During his presentation, Jochen Pinsker will therefore use the latest information to share the predictions for the Year 2020 as well as for 2021.

Methodik der Szenarienplanung:
Mit der Methodik der NPD Group lassen sich die Ausgaben und Besuche der Verbraucher in den verschiedenen Segmenten der Foodservice-Branche vorhersagen – basierend auf einer Segmentierung in Bedürfnis oder Besuchssituationen. Die Idee dahinter ist, dass die Menschen den Außer-Haus-Markt nutzen, je nachdem, ob sie sich in verschiedenen Situationen befinden, in denen sie Restaurants, Cafés, Cafeterien, Lieferservices oder Take-aways benötigen oder nutzen möchten. Wenn man sich beispielsweise an einem Tag im Büro oder in der Fabrik arbeitet, kann dies den Kauf eines Heißgetränks für den Arbeitsweg, eines Mittagessens in der Betriebskantine und eines Snacks am Nachmittag auslösen. Wenn Verbraucher derzeit nicht von ihrem Büro aus arbeiten, weil sie entweder ihren Job verloren haben oder von zu Hause aus arbeiten, befinden sie sich nicht in der Situation, dass ein Lebensmitteleinkauf erforderlich ist.
Die NPD hat so genannte “Treiber” identifiziert, die bestimmen, wie oft sich die Verbraucher voraussichtlich in verschiedenen Situationen wiederfinden. Diese umfassen die wirtschaftliche Situation, die Offenheit zum Ausgehen, die Veränderungen im Restaurantangebot sowie grundlegende Veränderungen im Privat- und Berufsleben. Die Entwicklung dieser “Treiber” wurde in verschiedenen Szenarien kombiniert. Die künftige Größe des Marktes lässt sich abschätzen, wenn man die Besuchsanlässe vor der Covid-19-Pandemie durch das CREST-Verbraucherpanel versteht und Szenarien für die Treiber erstellt.

Europäische Trends vs. lokale Länder:
Die Schritte, die während der Pandemie unternommen wurden, zeigten in allen Ländern ein ähnliches Bild: die “alte Normalität” vor dem Ausbruch, die Einführung erster Beschränkungen, der Lockdown, der Beginn der Erholung als erste Beschränkungen wieder aufgehoben wurden, und – hoffentlich bald, wenn es keine Beschränkungen mehr gibt – die “neue Normalität”. Zwar durchliefen alle Länder diese Schritte in ähnlicher Reihenfolge, doch die Baseline während der Abriegelung und auch die Frage, wie schnell die Erholung zu steigenden Besuchen und Ausgaben führte, zeigt große Unterschiede zwischen den Ländern. Mitte September sind einige Länder wieder bei 80 % der Größe von vor der Corona-Pandemie angelangt, andere liegen immer noch bei nur 50 %.

Die Zahlen für 2020 und 2021:
Da die NPD Group über ihr CREST-Panel das Verhalten der Verbraucher täglich verfolgt, kann sie ständig überprüfen, ob frühere Vorhersagen das tatsächliche Verhalten widerspiegeln. Darüber hinaus ändert sich in dieser noch nie dagewesenen Zeit auch der Ausblick auf die Treiber. Während seines Vortrags wird Jochen Pinsker daher die neuesten Informationen nutzen, um die Vorhersagen für das Jahr 2020 sowie für 2021 zu präsentieren.

Speakers

The following speakers are confirmed:

Jochen Pinsker


Jochen Pinsker


Senior Vice President, Foodservice Europe

Jochen Pinsker has tracked European foodservice and consumer behaviour trends for more than 20 years. He now sets the course for The NPD Group’s foodservice industry tracking in Europe and the Middle East, while also supporting clients and partners as NPD’s foodservice industry advisor.

Jochen came to NPD as an account manager servicing NPD’s first clients in Germany, and his regional and functional responsibility has grown over the years. As director of the company’s Europe Foodservice practice, and now as senior vice president, he has been integral to the rise of the practice from two European countries in 1998 to nine countries today.

Jochen consults with some of the largest operator and manufacturer clients across Europe, and he is frequently a featured speaker at various global food industry events and corporate conferences. A trusted source for reliable industry information, Jochen has been widely quoted in leading industry publications, such as foodservice europe and Nation’s Restaurant News.

Prior to joining The NPD Group, Jochen’s career included managing sports organizations in Germany. He transitioned to the foodservice industry in 1996 as head of events and catering at a large, multi-functional arena in Germany.

NPD offers data, industry expertise, and prescriptive analytics to help our clients grow their businesses in a changing world. Over 2,000 companies worldwide rely on us to help them measure, predict, and improve performance across all channels, including brick-and-mortar and e-commerce. We have offices in 27 cities worldwide, with operations spanning the Americas, Europe, and APAC. Practice areas include apparel, appliances, automotive, beauty, books, B2B technology, consumer technology, e-commerce, fashion accessories, food consumption, foodservice, footwear, home, juvenile products, media entertainment, mobile, office supplies, retail, sports, toys, video games, and watches. For more information, visit npd.com. Follow us on Twitter: @npdgroup.

Boris Tomic

Boris Tomic

Chief editor, foodservice

Boris Tomic, born in Essen, studied Theatre Studies, English and Politics at various German universities and in London. He received his master’s degree in Berlin. As a freelance journalist, he worked for many daily newspapers and journals as well as for television in the 1990s. Then, in the decade of zero, he was editor-in-chief of Journal Frankfurt, and subsequently head of the local editorial office of Frankfurter Neue Presse. Since April 2017, Boris Tomic has been editor-in-chief of the two trade publications foodservice and foodservice Europe & Middle East and their online presence FOOD SERVICE at the dfv Mediengruppe.

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