How US food trends impact Europe
At the 26th European Foodservice Summit in Amsterdam, Rabobank analyst Cyrille Filott explored the geopolitical and economic forces reshaping the food service industry. Here are the key insights from his presentation, highlighting crucial trends and strategic considerations for European businesses.
Key Data Shared by Cyrille Filott
- In 2023, 62% of US adults reported drinking alcohol, down from 54% in 2025, according to Gallup polls, with the steepest declines among Republicans (-19%) and Gen-Xers (-10%).
- More than 40% of the US population is obese, compared to roughly 20–30% in Europe, depending on the country.
- The US has imposed a 50% tariff on most Brazilian exports, including coffee, leading Brazilian coffee exporters—who previously sent 17% of their exports to the US, their largest market—to seek alternatives.
- European exporters face 15% tariffs on goods such as wine and frozen bakery products, with wine exports to the US valued at 5 billion euros annually, and pasta and bakery products at 3.3 billion euros per year.
- The introduction of anti-obesity medications, such as Ozempic, is credited with a 6% reduction in household food spending in the US, with largest reductions seen in snacking and an increase in protein-rich product consumption.
Top 5 Key Learnings
- Geopolitical Shifts Impact Trade – The current US administration’s approach centers on “America First,” resulting in the use of economic policy—including tariffs—as a tool for political and geopolitical objectives. This has direct effects on European exports of food and beverages, increasing costs and complicating access to the critical US market.
- Supply Chains Are Being Redrawn – Recent tariffs and geopolitical moves have triggered significant shifts in global supply chains, affecting products such as coffee, frozen potatoes, and beef. European suppliers should monitor these changes closely to anticipate cost fluctuations and identify new sourcing opportunities.
- Changing Food Regulations and Consumer Preferences – The US government is pursuing health-driven food policy agendas, such as defining “ultra-processed foods” and promoting whole foods, natural colors, and animal fats. These regulatory trends could shape global foodservice standards and consumer expectations.
- Social and Health Movements Drive Consumption Patterns – Key demographic groups, particularly younger consumers and Republicans, are shifting away from alcohol and ultra-processed foods. Social media accelerates these changes, and similar movements may soon reach Europe’s restaurant and hospitality landscapes.
- Anti-Obesity Medication Disrupts Food Sector – Emerging medications like Ozempic and similar GLP-1 drugs are reducing overall food consumption and shifting category demand toward protein-rich and nutritionally dense offerings. This pharmaceutical trend poses substantial ramifications for menu planning and product development.
